Westwood analysis shows Namibia is the most promising deepwater rig demand hotspot.
Exploration of Namibia’s Upper and Lower Cretaceous plays in the offshore Orange Basin have delivered nearly 5 Bbbl from nine wells since 2022, according to Westwood Global Energy Group.
The seven exploration wells that followed up the Graff and Venus play opening discoveries have resulted in four follow-on discoveries with an estimated recoverable oil resource of 2.8 Bbbl, said Teresa Wilkie, director of Westwood’s RigLogix service.
This includes Galp Energia’s Mopane discoveries earlier this year. If the estimated 2.4 Bbbl is confirmed, it would be the largest oil discovery in sub-Saharan Africa and the third largest globally over the last decade.
However, demand for deepwater rigs has risen since 2022 driven by the breakthrough wells. Although no rigs are working offshore Namibia, various new programs should start in the next few months.
Courtesy Westwood RigLogix
Drilling rigs contracted to work offshore Namibia from 2002-2024 (contracts fixed as of July 31, 2024)
In May, Azule Energy, the joint venture between bp and Eni, agreed to farm into 42.5% of Block 2914A in the Orange Basin offshore Namibia.
Shell and TotalEnergies have been the most active in terms of contracting rigs, accounting for 80% of the firm rig time offshore Namibia since third-qaurter 2021, with Galp’s use of the Odfjell Drilling-managed Hercules semisub in its PEL 83 representing 10%. The remaining 10% is split between Chevron and Rhino Resources.
Later this year, the Odfjell-managed harsh-environment Deepsea Bollsta semisub, which earlier drilled Shell’s wells, should spud a single exploration well for Chevron in PEL 90.
Potential targets are the Kapana and Maguni prospects. For Rhino, the Noble Venturer drillship will begin a two-well campaign in the fourth quarter, likely on the Sagittarius or Volans prospects.
TotalEnergies should resume exploration and appraisal drilling in the coming months, with plans to drill the Kokerboom prospect in PEL 56. No rig is confirmed yet, although the company has a 10-year arrangement that allows it to deploy the Tungsten Explorer drillship in various countries.
It also has the Deepsea Mira semisub on hire until through January 2025, plus a one-well option remaining on the deal. At present, both rigs are active offshore Congo.
According to Wilkie, TotalEnergies and its partners could be the first to develop their breakthrough finds, with FID on the Venus project expected in 2025. This will involve drilling multiple subsea wells for tying back to an FPSO.
Shell has not revealed plans for further exploration or appraisal going forward. Galp, however, is looking to drill up to four wells around its Mopane complex, with the first to spud before the end of the year.
Galp is thought to be closing on a sublet on a drillship already in West African waters.
Next year BW Energy intends to drill two wells on PL003, the company’s first since becoming license operator. These will appraise the giant Kudu gas discovery and a shallower Upper or Lower Cretaceous oil exploration target.
Westwood expects a tender to be issued this month for a drillship or semisubmersible.
Woodside Energy still has to decide whether to take up an option to farm into PEL 87 containing the Saturn prospect, after covering the cost of 3D seismic acquisition over the block in May 2023.
Day rates for Namibian rig contracts have risen due to the continued market recovery, averaging $365,000/d for mutually agreed deals (not including fixed price options). A recent fixture for a seventh generation drillship already in the region was at $410,000/d.
However, there remain many challenges to address for future development of Namibia’s resources including reservoir deliverability, gas management and extreme water depths, Wilkie concluded.
Source : https://www.offshore-mag.com/rigs/article/55136439/deepwater-exploration-drilling-close-to-resuming-offshore-namibia