**August 2024: Russian Oil Exports Reach Lowest Levels in Three Years**
Russian oil exports have hit their lowest mark in three years, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) reporting a significant decline in August. According to trade data from Kpler and Argus Media analyzed by the IEA, Russian oil exports decreased by 290,000 barrels per day (b/d) month-over-month (m-o-m) to 7 million b/d in August 2024.
This decline marks the second consecutive month of reduction in Russian oil exports, a trend that is attributed to various factors including seasonal demand fluctuations and operational issues such as drone attacks on key facilities. The impact of these factors is particularly evident in the slump of light product exports (naphtha, gasoline, and gasoil), which fell by 240,000 b/d. However, a rise in fuel and Vacuum Gas Oil (VGO) loadings of 230,000 b/d partially offset these losses.
Despite the overall drop in exports, product revenue remained relatively stable at 2.65 million b/d, showing resilience despite summer demand upticks and stagnant refinery runs. However, the combined effect of lower volumes and prices resulted in a significant decline in commercial export revenues by $1.6 billion m-o-m to $15.3 billion, a level not seen since July 2023.
To explain the sharp drop in Russian crude exports, the IEA points out that some 230,000 b/d of August seaborne crude exports lacked identified destinations at the time of analysis. This trend, combined with the substantial monthly drop in exports affecting specific regions like India (-310,000 b/d) and Türkiye (-190,000 b/d), highlights complexities in predicting exact volumes by destination due to shifting demand dynamics anticipated ahead of forthcoming refinery maintenance.
### Market Analysis
The IEA also noted that Urals export prices slumped by $3.50-4.