**North Sea Trends May Drive Semisubmersible Rig Activity Elsewhere**
The dynamics in the North Sea, particularly with regards to semisubmersible rigs, are experiencing significant shifts. According to insights from Westwood Global Energy Group, the total awarded days for the North Sea semisub fleet in 2024 have drastically decreased. As of recent data, the North Sea semisub fleet has been utilized for just 1,468 days, a notable drop from last year’s 7,158 days in Norway and 3,524 days in the UK.
Norway accounts for a substantial 1,195 days within this total, while the UK contributes 273 days. Despite the current low demand, there are indications of future rig opportunities. RigLogix has identified three rig tenders in UK waters and one offshore Norway that are likely to commence in 2025 and 2026, totaling 910 days. Additionally, there is forecasted tentative demand totaling 13,803 days across the UK, Norway, and Ireland.
Interestingly, the decline in semisub rates observed in the North Sea has been occurring since 2022. Currently, semisub day rates outside Norway are among the lowest globally. Conversely, North Sea jackup day rates have been increasing, averaging just over $132,000/day since 2018.
Westwood Global Energy Group has also noted that several drilling contractors with rigs based in Norway and the UK are bidding for work in other regions, including Southeast Asia, the Mediterranean, Africa, and the Falkland Islands. This migration is largely driven by high rig day rates in the North Sea, particularly as operators have been deferring programs due to these costs.
One significant aspect driving the trend is the upcoming plugging and abandoning (P&A) of wells in the UK North Sea. Between 2024 and 2033, nearly 2,200 wells are set to be plugged and abandoned, with 39% of these being subsea operations. However, operators have been delaying these projects due to high rig day rates.
The combined effect of these trends suggests a potential drift of semisubmersible rigs from the North Sea to other regions. As operators seek to manage cost efficiently and meet drilling demands, the global offshore rig market is poised for significant shifts in the coming years.
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