Russian Oil Exports Continue to Decline to Three-Year Lows
Russian oil exports have reached their lowest levels in three years, with significant declines in both crude and product exports, according to recent data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) based on trade data from Kpler and Argus Media.
### August 2024: A Month of Declines
Russian oil exports in August 2024 decreased by 290,000 barrels per day (b/d) month-over-month (m-o-m), totaling 7 million b/d. This marks the second consecutive month of decline and the lowest level since March 2021. Crude exports suffered a seasonal 270,000 b/d m-o-m contraction to 4.4 million b/d, while product exports remained relatively stable at 2.65 million b/d, although they dropped slightly year-over-year (y-o-y).
### Sectoral Breakdown
**Crude Exports:**
Russian crude exports faced a substantial 270,000 b/d m-o-m contraction, settling at 4.4 million b/d, which is a year-over-year decline. This drop reflects a combination of seasonal adjustments and heavier field maintenance, although the exact cause remains unclear. Almost 230,000 b/d of August seaborne crude exports had no identified destination, limiting the precision of estimating volumes by destination.
**Product Exports:**
Product exports, including light products like naphtha, gasoline, and gasoil, declined by 240,000 b/d, while VGO (Vacuum Gas Oil) and fuel oil saw an increase of 230,000 b/d and 50,000 b/d respectively. These fluctuations reflect conversion unit outages following drone attacks, as well as changes in global demand patterns.
### Revenue Impact
The combined effect of lower volumes and prices led to a decrease in commercial export revenues by $1.6 billion m-o-m to $15.3 billion,