**Russian Oil Exports Plummet to 3-Year Low in August 2024**
In a recent development, Russian oil exports have reached their lowest level in three years, according to analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA). The month of August saw a significant decline in Russian oil exports, reaching 7 million barrels per day (b/d), a decrease of 290,000 b/d from the previous month. This marks the second consecutive month of decline, underscoring the challenges faced by the Russian oil industry.
### Key Observations
1. **Crude Exports Suffer Seasonal Contraction**
– Russian crude exports experienced a seasonal decline of 270,000 b/d in August, reaching 4.4 million b/d. This drop is attributed to various factors, including field maintenance and operational dynamics.
– Year-over-year (y-o-y), Russian crude exports also declined by 270,000 b/d, reflecting broader trends in the global oil market.
2. **Product Exports Remain Relatively Stable**
– Despite a y-o-y decline of 20,000 b/d, product exports remained relatively stable at 2.65 million b/d. This stability is noteworthy given the summer demand uptick and stagnant refinery runs.
– The contrast between crude and product exports highlights the resilience of Russian oil product shipments, which continue to meet global demand.
3. **Revenue Impact**
– The combined effect of lower volumes and prices resulted in a monthly decline of $1.6 billion in commercial export revenues. This brings the total revenue to $15.3 billion, a level not seen since July 2023.
– Products revenue declined by $480 million to $5.6 billion, while crude revenue dropped by $1.2 billion to $9.6 billion, underscoring the significant impact of decreased exports on revenue.
4. **Unclear Causes for Contraction**
– The IEA noted that available data does