**August Russian Oil Exports Dropped to Three-Year Lows, According to Latest Market Data**
Russian oil exports suffered a significant decline in August 2024, plummeting to their lowest level in three years. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that total oil exports hit 7 million barrels per day (b/d), a 290,000 b/d drop from the previous month. This downward trend marks the second consecutive month of decline and stands as the lowest level since March 2021.
### Key Statistics and Insights
1. **Crude Exports Decline**: Russian crude exports specifically fell by 270,000 b/d month-over-month (m-o-m) and 270,000 b/d year-over-year (y-o-y) to approximately 4.4 million b/d.
2. **Stable Product Exports**: In contrast, product exports showed relative stability, dipping only 20,000 b/d y-o-y to 2.65 million b/d despite the summer demand uptick and stagnant refinery runs.
3. **Price Impact**: Urals export prices dropped by $3.50-4.00 per barrel (bbl) over the month to $68.30/bbl, which is closer but still below the G7 price cap. This discount indicates better valuations for sour crudes compared to sweet ones in the international market.
4. **Shift in Demand**: The decline in light product exports (naphtha, gasoline plus gasoil) offset the rise in fuel and VGO (Vacuum Gas Oil) loadings. This shift reflects conversion unit outages following drone attacks and potentially impending maintenance at refineries.
### Unidentified Shipments and Unclear Causes
The available data does not clearly indicate whether the significant drop in Russian crude exports is due to efforts to meet OPEC+ production cut obligations or heavier field maintenance. Almost 230,000