**Russian Oil Exports Plummet to Lowest Level in 3 Years**
The latest data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates a significant drop in Russian oil exports in August 2024, marking the second consecutive month of decline and the lowest level since March 2021. Russian oil exports dropped by 290,000 barrels per day (b/d) month-over-month (m-o-m) to reach 7 million b/d, according to analysis from the IEA based on trade data from Kpler and Argus Media.
This decline in oil exports was observed despite higher crude oil and product prices globally. The IEA noted that Russian crude exports suffered a seasonal 270,000 b/d m-o-m contraction to 4.4 million b/d, while product exports remained relatively stable at 2.65 million b/d, despite the summer demand uptick and stagnant refinery runs.
A closer examination of the product exports reveals mixed trends. Specifically, a 240,000 b/d fall in light product exports (naphtha, gasoline, plus gasoil) offset a 230,000 b/d rise in fuel and Vacuum Gas Oil (VGO) loadings. This shift is attributed to conversion unit outages resulting from drone attacks on Russian facilities, which impacted production volumes and subsequent export revenues.
The overall commercial export revenues from oil declined by $1.6 billion m-o-m to reach $15.3 billion, a level not seen since July 2023. Product revenue decreased by $480 million to $5.6 billion, while crude revenue fell by $1.2 billion to $9.6 billion.
The available data does not clarify whether the deep drop in Russian crude exports is due to efforts to meet OPEC+ production cut obligations or simply heavier field maintenance. Almost 230,000 b/d of August seaborne crude exports lacked identified destinations, limiting the accuracy of estimating volumes by destination.
For July, a significant drop in exports primarily impacted