**Russian Oil Exports Hit Three-Year Low in August Amid Global Shifts**
Russian oil exports in August 2024 reached their lowest level in three years, according to recent analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA) based on trade data from Kpler and Argus Media. This decline marks the second consecutive month of a downward trend, with July also experiencing a significant drop. August’s figures stand at 7 million barrels per day (b/d), down from 7.29 million b/d the previous month.
### Key Findings
1. **Decline in Total Exports**:
– Russian oil exports showed a sharp contraction of 290,000 b/d month-over-month (m-o-m) from July to August, reaching 7 million b/d.
2. **Seasonal Contraction in Crude Exports**:
– Crude exports specifically underwent a seasonal drop of 270,000 b/d m-o-m, landing at 4.4 million b/d, with a year-over-year (y-o-y) contraction of 270,000 b/d.
3. **Resilience in Product Exports**:
– In contrast, Russia’s product exports such as naphtha, gasoline, and gasoil were relatively stable, experiencing a decline of only 20,000 b/d y-o-y, at 2.65 million b/d. This stability is notable despite the summer demand uptick and stagnant refinery runs.
4. **Impact on Revenues**:
– The combined effect of lower volumes and prices resulted in a significant drop in commercial export revenues by $1.6 billion m-o-m to $15.3 billion, which is the lowest since July 2023. Product revenues fell by $480 million to $5.6 billion, while crude revenues dropped by $1.2 billion to $9.6 billion.
### Insights on Regional Dynamics
– **India and Türkiye**:
– Exports to India