**August 2024: Russian Oil Exports Plummet to Three-Year Lows**
Russia’s oil export figures have hit their lowest point in three years, reflecting a significant decline in the country’s oil production and trade dynamics. According to recent analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Russian oil exports in August 2024 decreased by 290,000 barrels per day (b/d) month-over-month (m-o-m) to approximately 7 million b/d. This markdown marks the second consecutive month of decline, with August shipments falling short of the 7.29 million b/d recorded in the same period last year.
**Seasonal Contraction and Local Shifts**
A seasonal contraction of 270,000 b/d in crude exports to 4.4 million b/d was observed, coupled with a year-over-year decline of 270,000 b/d. In contrast, product exports remained relatively stable, albeit with a modest decline of 20,000 b/d year-over-year (y-o-y) to 2.65 million b/d. The decrease in product exports, particularly in naphtha, gasoline, and gasoil, was partly offset by a rise in fuel and Vacuum Gas Oil (VGO) loadings, which increased by 230,000 b/d, IEA noted.
**Export Revenue Hit**
The lower volumes and prices witnessed in August resulted in a significant drop in commercial export revenues. The total revenue decreased by $1.6 billion m-o-m to $15.3 billion, the lowest figure since July 2023. Product revenues dropped by $480 million to $5.6 billion, while crude revenue decreased by $1.2 billion to $9.6 billion.
**Export Destination Changes**
The IEA highlighted that a substantial portion of the fall in crude exports—approximately 230,000 b/d—was attributed to unidentified destinations, limiting the accuracy of estimating volumes by specific markets. Meanwhile