**August Sees Lowest Russian Oil Exports in Three Years: A Comprehensive Analysis**
The latest data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that Russian oil exports have reached their lowest level since March 2021. In August 2024, these exports declined by 290,000 barrels per day (b/d) month-over-month (m-o-m) to approximately 7 million b/d, marking a second consecutive month of decline and the lowest volume since these periods of record.
**Key Insights:**
1. **Overall Decline:** Total Russian oil exports in August fell by 290,000 b/d to 7 million b/d, based on trade data from Kpler and Argus Media. This represents a significant dip, underscoring the ongoing challenges faced by the Russian oil industry.
2. **Crude vs. Product Exports:**
– **Crude Exports:** Russian crude exports suffered a seasonal 270,000 b/d m-o-m contraction to 4.4 million b/d (-270,000 b/d year-over year, y-o-y). This decrease is notable, despite the summer demand uptick and stagnant refinery runs.
– **Product Exports:** Conversely, product exports remained relatively stable (-20,000 b/d y-o-y) at 2.65 million b/d. However, a 240,000 b/d fall in light product exports (naphtha, gasoline, and gasoil) offset a 230,000 b/d rise in fuel and Vacuum Gas Oil (VGO) loadings. This trend reflects conversion unit outages following drone attacks, according to the IEA.
3. **Export Revenues and Prices:**
– The combination of lower volumes and prices resulted in a $1.6 billion monthly decline in commercial export revenues to $15.3 billion, a level not seen since July 2023. Specifically, product revenue declined by $480 million to $5